2021 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings For All 358 Teams

2021 College Basketball Preseason Rankings & Ratings For All 358 Teams

Gonzaga tops our 2021 college basketball preseason rankings, but clusters of teams with similar power ratings portend a balanced year.

November 4, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

Drew Timme will try to get Gonzaga back to No. 1 (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

The official TeamRankings 2021-22 college basketball preseason rankings have arrived.

If you want to read an in-depth description of how these rankings are created, check out our blog post on how we make college basketball preseason ratings.

Otherwise, keep reading for a discussion of the preseason rankings highlights, full rankings and ratings for all 358 teams playing this year in Division I, and a breakdown of the underlying factors that contributed the most to each team’s rating.

Let’s start with what everybody asks first: “Who’s your No. 1 team?”

Gonzaga Is Our Preseason No. 1 Again

For the second year in a row, the Gonzaga Bulldogs start the season as our No. 1 team.

Gonzaga hasn’t done anything to lessen the view that they are a consistently great program that has become a recruiting power. The only thing they haven’t done at this point is win the national title.

They did lose some key players, including freshman Jalen Suggs and senior Corey Kispert. But star forward Drew Timme is back, and they also added another top prospect this year in Chet Holmgren.

But What About Baylor?

Baylor, along with Gonzaga, was one of the two most dominant teams in college basketball last season. The Bears overcame some midseason issues with COVID-19 and surged to the title in an NCAA tournament where they played their best basketball in the Final Four.

They were also a team loaded with seniors, so they’ve lost a lot of production. Baylor has established a program and a level of consistent success, but relative to last year, this will probably be a reloading season.

We still have Baylor at No. 12, in a large group of teams that should be in contention if things break right.

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Coronavirus Impact On The 2021-22 Rankings

While we hopefully won’t see the volume of postponements that we did last season, it’s inevitable that there will still be some pandemic-related disruptions. But we’re talking here about team ratings, not projections of end-of-season win totals or specific records.

These preseason ratings represent our estimate of how good teams will be, regardless of whether COVID-19 results in them having some games canceled or losing opportunities to get key wins.

Trying to predict which teams will be most and least impacted by the pandemic is a fool’s errand. But we expect more variance impacting where teams end up at the end of the season compared to non-pandemic years.

Our approach here is to establish a framework for predicting games as best we can using methods that have worked in the past, while acknowledging the unique challenges that the 2021-22 season will bring.

Preseason Top 25 Comparison

Moving on to the rest of our 2021-22 college basketball Top 25, let’s take a look at all of the teams that made it into at least one preseason Top 25 from the following group of college basketball prognosticators:

Our 2021-22 college basketball preseason ratings (TR)Ken Pomeroy’s preseason ratings (KP)Bart Torvik’s preseason ratings (BT)AP Poll (AP)Coaches Poll (Coach)

The table below lists all such teams along with their preseason ranking in each system. It also shows the average rank, and concludes with a column indicating how far TR is from the consensus. (In that last column, a positive number means we ranked a team better than the consensus rankings, while a negative number means we ranked a team worse than consensus.)

For teams receiving no votes in the polls, we used a rank of 55. Teams are listed in ascending order by average rank.

Note: We usually include ESPN’s Basketball Power Index preseason ratings (BPI) in this table as well, but the BPI rankings were not yet published when we wrote this post. 

Team	TR	KP	BT	AP	CP	AVG	TR Diff
Gonzaga	1	1	1	1	1	1.0	0.0
UCLA	3	7	2	2	2	3.2	0.2
Kansas	6	3	6	3	3	4.2	-1.8
Michigan	2	2	7	6	6	4.6	2.6
Purdue	4	6	8	7	7	6.4	2.4
Texas	5	14	4	5	5	6.6	1.6
Illinois	7	5	5	11	10	7.6	0.6
Villanova	10	9	12	4	4	7.8	-2.2
Baylor	12	4	9	8	8	8.2	-3.8
Duke	15	10	10	9	9	10.6	-4.4
Memphis	11	16	3	12	16	11.6	0.6
Houston	8	11	13	15	14	12.2	4.2
Ohio State	9	8	11	17	17	12.4	3.4
Kentucky	13	17	17	10	11	13.6	0.6
Alabama	14	19	15	14	13	15.0	1.0
Tennessee	17	13	14	18	17	15.8	-1.2
Arkansas	16	15	31	16	15	18.6	2.6
Maryland	22	18	23	21	21	21.0	-1.0
Auburn	18	28	19	22	22	21.8	3.8
Connecticut	23	21	18	24	23	21.8	-1.2
Oregon	20	29	36	13	12	22.0	2.0
Florida St	27	24	27	20	19	23.4	-3.6
Texas Tech	21	12	26	33	27	23.8	2.8
USC	19	20	25	28	28	24.0	5.0
St Bonavent	30	30	16	23	24	24.6	-5.4
N Carolina	28	40	20	19	20	25.4	-2.6
Michigan St	31	22	28	26	26	26.6	-4.4
Indiana	24	31	30	27	30	28.4	4.4
Xavier	38	26	21	32	45	32.4	-5.6
Oklahoma St	25	37	42	30	33	33.4	8.4
Florida	26	25	22	55	55	36.6	10.6
Louisville	29	36	24	45	55	37.8	8.8
Virginia	37	45	67	25	25	39.8	2.8
Iowa	39	23	61	55	39	43.4	4.4

Preseason Top 25 Comparison Highlights

When comparing how teams are ranked across the various systems above, a few highlights stick out.

Teams The Human Polls Love (Relatively)

Even though rankings systems will always have their differences, the human polls are clearly more optimistic about some teams than data-driven systems are.

Here are teams that are ranked higher in both the preseason AP and Coaches Polls than in any of three leading data-driven rankings systems (TeamRankings, Pomeroy, Torvik). We list each team below, along with the difference between (a) its human poll ranking and (b) its BEST ranking out of those three data-driven systems.

Virginia +12 (No. 25 in both polls, No. 37 in TR)Oregon +7 (No. 13 in AP Poll, No. 20 in TR)Villanova +6 (No. 4 in both polls, No. 10 in TR)Florida State +4 (No. 20 in AP Poll, No. 24 in KP)Kentucky +2 (No. 11 in Coaches Poll, No. 13 TR)Duke +1 (No. 9 in both polls, No. 10 in KP and BT)

Why are the pollsters higher on those teams? We can’t say for sure, but for the most part, these seem to be big program names or teams that have enjoyed recent tournament success.

Teams The Human Polls Dislike (Relatively)

These teams are lower in the preseason AP and Coaches Polls than in any of the data-driven rankings. Here we list the difference between (a) its human poll ranking and (b) its WORST ranking out of the three data-driven systems.

Florida -29 (unranked, no votes in either pool, No. 26 in TR)Louisville -9 (No. 45 in AP Poll, No. 36 in KP)Ohio State -6 (No. 17 in both polls, No. 11 in BT)USC -3 (No. 28 in both polls, No. 25 in BT)Illinois -3 (No. 10 in Coaches Poll, No. 7 in TR)Texas Tech -1 (No. 27 in Coaches Poll, No. 26 in BT)Houston -1 (No. 14 in Coaches Poll, No. 13 in BT)

The first two teams on the list play in tough conferences, and Louisville didn’t make the tournament last year, while Florida lost in the second round to Oral Roberts.

The rest of the list includes two Big Ten teams who disappointed in the NCAA tournament, a USC team that lost a top NBA draft pick, a veteran Houston team not being given the benefit of the doubt, and a Texas Tech team with a new head coach.

Correlations With Consensus

For the 34 teams listed in the table above, our rankings have the highest correlation coefficient when comparing each ranking system with the consensus. Torvik’s rankings have the lowest overall correlation with consensus rankings by a hair, just behind Pomeroy.

The rank order of correlation to consensus is:

TeamRankings (0.938)AP Poll (0.910)Coaches Poll (0.895)Pomeroy (0.847)Torvik (0.839)

That’s the same order as last year, aside from the two human polls flipping places, and the correlation coefficients are roughly in line with last year as well.

Still, the order being roughly the same is evidence it wasn’t some kind of fluke. Our rankings do seem to have fewer or smaller outliers than the other systems. That makes sense, because we use market data to adjust for cases where our raw model seems to be missing something.

Our Rankings Are High On Purdue and Houston

Among the 34 teams listed in the table above, here are the teams where our ranking is the highest (all by itself) for that team. We list our ranking and then the next closest for that same team:

Purdue (4th/6th)Houston (8th/11th)Auburn (18th/19th)USC (19th/20th)Indiana (24th/27th)Oklahoma State (25th/30th)

Our differences on Purdue may not seem large, but given that they are fourth for us and not in the top five in any of the other rating/rankings systems, that’s a potentially sizable difference in terms of odds of winning the title or getting a top seed.

We also give Houston more of a chance of repeating last year’s run.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State is on probation and lost a top player in Cade Cunningham, but we expect them to be better than other ratings do.

Last year in this section, we identified only one team as being ranked highly by TR compared to the consensus: Purdue. We had the Boilermakers ranked No. 26 in the preseason, while they received zero votes in the preseason AP Poll and only a few in the Coaches Poll, and were ranked No. 55 by Torvik. They finished the season ranked between No. 20 and No. 29 in all five systems, as well as in ESPN’s BPI ratings.

Our Rankings Are Low On Baylor, Duke, and Michigan State

Here are the teams where we had the lowest ranking on a team. We list our ranking and then the next closest for that same team:

Baylor (12th/9th)Duke (15th/10th)Michigan State (31st/28th)

All of these are prominent programs. One is the defending national champs, and the other two have Hall of Fame coaches.

In addition to these three, we are most below consensus on Xavier, St. Bonaventure, Florida State, North Carolina, and Villanova, though at least one other rating/ranking system joins us in the relative pessimism on that group.

Last year, we identified three teams that we were lowest on. Alabama had a really good season, outperforming expectations, while both Arizona State and Providence had disappointing years and missed the NCAA tournament despite higher expectations from others.

Full 2021-22 College Basketball Preseason Rankings, From #1 To #358

The table below shows our 2021-22 preseason ranking of all 358 college basketball teams, along with each team’s associated preseason predictive rating.

The team ratings are expressed as points better (positive rating) or worse (negative rating) than a “perfectly average” college basketball team, when playing on a neutral court.

The final eight columns of the table show the relative contribution of specific factors our preseason ratings model considers, as well as a final “market adjustment” we make for some teams.

Here’s a quick explanation of those factors. For more detail, read our post on how we make college basketball preseason ratings.

LAST YEAR: How good a team was last season (based on final predictive rating)PROGRAM: Recent historical performance, excluding last seasonRET OFF: Returning offensive production, compared to typicalRET DEF: Returning defensive production, compared to typicalRECRUIT: Value of incoming freshman recruiting classTRANSFER: Value of incoming Division I transfers (JUCO transfers ignored)COACH: Recent coaching changes expected to have positive or negative impactMARKET: Adjustment if our ratings-based projection for a team is far off the betting market or our rankings differ greatly from the AP poll

TR Rank	Team	21-22 Rating	LAST YR	PROGRAM	RET OFF	RET DEF	RECRUIT	TRANSFER	COACH	MARKET
1	Gonzaga	22.6	12.2	3.8	-0.3	0.1	6.7	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	Michigan	19.7	9.1	3.7	-0.7	-0.5	4.1	4.0	0.0	0.0
3	UCLA	18.7	6.2	2.1	3.5	2.5	2.8	1.6	0.0	0.0
4	Purdue	18.7	5.7	4.8	3.5	2.6	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	Texas	18.5	5.6	2.2	-1.4	-0.8	3.0	7.9	2.0	0.0
6	Kansas	18.2	5.6	4.8	1.9	1.8	2.9	1.2	0.0	0.0
7	Illinois	18.1	9.9	2.4	1.6	1.5	2.8	0.8	0.0	-1.0
8	Houston	17.4	9.3	3.3	-0.4	0.0	0.4	5.8	0.0	-1.0
9	Ohio State	17.1	7.1	3.9	1.9	1.6	2.1	0.4	0.0	0.0
10	Villanova	16.9	6.8	4.6	1.9	1.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
11	Memphis	16.9	4.9	2.8	0.6	1.0	5.5	0.9	0.0	1.0
12	Baylor	16.4	10.9	2.5	-1.1	-0.5	2.7	1.9	0.0	0.0
13	Kentucky	16.4	3.7	3.6	-0.7	-0.5	5.0	5.3	0.0	0.0
14	Alabama	16.3	8.0	1.8	-0.5	0.0	3.4	2.5	0.0	1.0
15	Duke	16.2	4.2	4.0	-1.4	-0.9	5.9	2.4	0.0	2.0
16	Arkansas	15.9	7.0	2.3	-0.7	-0.6	2.1	6.9	0.0	-1.0
17	Tennessee	15.7	6.4	3.9	0.1	0.5	4.2	0.5	0.0	0.0
18	Auburn	15.7	3.0	4.0	-0.1	-0.2	3.5	5.6	0.0	0.0
19	USC	15.7	8.5	2.4	0.7	0.3	3.4	1.4	0.0	-1.0
20	Oregon	15.6	6.1	1.8	-1.9	-1.0	2.7	7.0	0.0	1.0
21	Texas Tech	15.6	6.3	4.0	-0.3	0.2	1.6	7.7	-4.0	0.0
22	Maryland	15.6	4.7	3.3	-0.3	0.4	1.9	4.6	0.0	1.0
23	Connecticut	15.0	5.9	1.3	2.1	1.6	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
24	Indiana	14.8	4.2	2.9	1.4	0.9	2.8	2.6	0.0	0.0
25	Oklahoma St	14.8	4.8	2.4	1.7	1.2	2.3	2.4	0.0	0.0
26	Florida	14.6	4.8	3.1	-0.6	-0.2	2.7	5.9	0.0	-1.0
27	Florida St	14.6	6.3	3.2	-1.3	-0.7	3.6	2.4	0.0	1.0
28	N Carolina	14.5	5.3	4.2	0.7	0.6	3.9	2.8	-3.0	0.0
29	Louisville	14.2	2.8	3.6	-0.6	-0.2	2.2	6.5	0.0	0.0
30	St Bonavent	13.9	4.7	1.3	3.2	2.6	0.0	1.2	0.0	1.0
31	Michigan St	13.9	2.5	4.8	-0.2	0.2	3.3	2.3	0.0	1.0
32	Seton Hall	13.9	3.4	3.3	0.3	0.7	1.2	4.9	0.0	0.0
33	Oklahoma	13.8	4.7	2.4	-1.3	-0.7	1.8	6.9	0.0	0.0
34	W Virginia	13.7	5.6	2.9	-0.6	-0.1	1.1	4.8	0.0	0.0
35	Arizona	13.7	5.5	3.0	-0.2	0.0	3.1	4.2	-1.0	-1.0
36	VA Tech	13.7	3.8	3.2	1.3	1.1	1.0	3.2	0.0	0.0
37	Virginia	13.5	5.6	3.6	-1.9	-1.3	1.4	3.3	0.0	3.0
38	Xavier	13.2	3.2	3.1	2.5	1.9	1.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
39	Iowa	12.7	8.8	2.7	-0.4	-0.3	0.5	0.5	0.0	1.0
40	Penn State	12.6	4.5	3.0	-0.3	0.2	0.0	5.1	0.0	0.0
41	S Methodist	12.3	3.5	1.1	-0.4	0.2	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
42	LSU	11.8	5.9	2.2	-1.8	-1.2	3.2	2.5	0.0	1.0
43	San Diego St	11.7	5.2	2.9	0.5	0.1	0.0	2.1	0.0	1.0
44	BYU	11.5	6.1	2.5	1.1	1.2	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
45	Notre Dame	11.4	1.5	2.5	1.0	0.9	0.0	5.5	0.0	0.0
46	St Johns	11.2	2.4	1.7	-0.6	-0.2	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
47	UAB	10.8	1.1	0.5	0.8	0.7	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
48	Loyola-Chi	10.8	5.3	1.7	1.9	1.5	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0
49	Nevada	10.7	0.6	3.1	1.9	1.5	0.0	3.6	0.0	0.0
50	St Marys	10.6	1.9	2.9	3.5	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
51	Wichita St	10.3	2.3	2.9	1.1	1.2	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0
52	Arizona St	10.2	1.4	2.1	-1.9	-1.0	2.4	7.3	0.0	0.0
53	San Fransco	10.2	1.0	1.5	1.9	1.3	0.0	3.5	0.0	1.0
54	Butler	10.1	-0.2	3.2	3.0	1.9	0.5	1.7	0.0	0.0
55	Colorado	10.0	7.7	1.5	-0.5	-0.2	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Cincinnati	10.0	-0.4	3.6	-0.5	0.2	0.5	7.6	0.0	-1.0
57	Central FL	9.9	0.7	1.7	3.2	1.9	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0
58	Miss State	9.8	2.4	2.8	-0.3	0.4	0.5	4.0	0.0	0.0
59	Mississippi	9.7	3.5	1.9	-0.1	-0.2	1.9	2.7	0.0	0.0
60	Wisconsin	9.7	6.5	2.8	-0.6	-0.3	0.0	0.4	0.0	1.0
61	Colgate	9.5	4.9	0.3	2.4	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
62	Rutgers	9.4	4.8	2.2	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.0	0.0
63	Northwestern	9.4	2.5	1.8	1.9	1.4	0.5	1.4	0.0	0.0
64	Richmond	9.4	2.2	0.7	2.7	1.8	0.0	1.0	0.0	1.0
65	Colorado St	9.2	2.3	0.1	3.2	2.1	0.0	0.6	0.0	1.0
66	NC State	9.2	2.5	3.0	0.4	0.2	2.5	0.6	0.0	0.0
67	Drake	9.1	2.6	0.3	2.5	1.7	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
68	Utah State	9.1	3.7	1.9	-0.5	0.0	0.0	6.9	-3.0	0.0
69	Providence	9.0	2.2	2.4	1.0	1.0	0.5	1.9	0.0	0.0
70	Clemson	8.9	3.8	2.9	-0.2	0.1	0.5	1.7	0.0	0.0
71	Wash State	8.7	1.8	0.1	1.0	0.6	1.3	3.9	0.0	0.0
72	Creighton	8.5	6.1	1.9	-2.7	-1.5	1.9	1.8	0.0	1.0
73	Marquette	8.5	1.9	2.2	-2.4	-1.1	2.1	5.8	0.0	0.0
74	GA Tech	8.3	4.1	1.6	0.6	0.3	1.3	0.4	0.0	0.0
75	Boise State	8.2	3.4	1.9	1.7	1.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
76	VCU	8.0	3.5	1.9	0.8	0.4	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.0
77	Stanford	7.8	3.1	2.0	-0.1	-0.3	3.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
78	TX Christian	7.7	-1.2	2.7	-1.6	-0.5	0.5	7.9	0.0	0.0
79	Syracuse	7.7	4.4	1.8	-1.5	-0.7	2.3	1.5	0.0	0.0
80	Nebraska	7.4	0.6	1.9	-0.6	-0.1	1.4	2.2	0.0	2.0
81	Oregon St	7.4	3.8	1.8	0.8	0.6	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
82	Texas A&M	7.1	-1.3	1.8	-1.3	-1.3	2.0	7.1	0.0	0.0
83	Ohio	7.1	0.6	-0.2	2.0	1.5	0.0	1.2	0.0	2.0
84	Miami (FL)	7.0	-1.2	2.2	0.6	0.2	2.8	3.4	0.0	-1.0
85	Loyola Mymt	6.9	0.7	-0.2	2.3	1.5	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0
86	Buffalo	6.9	1.1	2.2	1.5	1.3	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0
87	Missouri St	6.6	0.4	0.5	2.6	1.7	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.0
88	Belmont	6.6	-0.2	1.9	3.0	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
89	Utah	6.6	3.9	0.8	-2.0	-0.9	1.0	5.8	0.0	-2.0
90	S Dakota St	6.1	-0.6	1.5	3.2	1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
91	Northeastrn	5.9	-2.6	1.0	0.6	0.3	0.0	6.7	0.0	0.0
92	Tulsa	5.9	-0.3	1.2	-0.6	-0.4	0.0	6.1	0.0	0.0
93	Davidson	5.8	2.3	2.1	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
94	Washington	5.7	-1.5	2.2	-1.5	0.0	2.3	4.3	0.0	0.0
95	UCSB	5.6	2.4	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0
96	N Mex State	5.6	-2.0	2.0	0.5	0.5	0.0	4.6	0.0	0.0
97	Rhode Island	5.5	0.4	1.9	1.1	0.7	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.0
98	LA Tech	5.5	1.4	1.0	1.1	0.8	0.0	1.3	0.0	0.0
99	UC Irvine	5.5	0.5	1.1	1.9	1.3	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0
100	Vanderbilt	5.3	0.7	0.7	-0.2	0.2	0.0	3.9	0.0	0.0
101	N Iowa	5.3	-3.1	1.1	3.3	2.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0
102	W Kentucky	5.3	0.5	1.2	-1.5	-0.4	1.3	3.2	0.0	1.0
103	Furman	5.2	1.5	1.9	1.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
104	Vermont	5.1	-0.9	1.7	2.1	1.4	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0
105	Murray St	5.0	-3.1	1.8	0.5	0.2	0.0	5.7	0.0	0.0
106	Dayton	5.0	0.9	2.0	-1.4	-0.8	1.3	1.9	0.0	1.0
107	Saint Louis	5.0	3.6	1.1	0.4	0.8	0.0	1.0	0.0	-2.0
108	Wake Forest	4.9	-1.9	0.9	-1.4	-0.6	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
109	Georgetown	4.9	2.7	1.0	-1.6	-0.9	1.4	1.2	0.0	1.0
110	Wright State	4.8	1.4	0.7	1.2	1.0	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0
111	Weber State	4.7	0.1	-0.7	1.7	0.9	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0
112	Kansas St	4.6	-2.3	2.8	0.8	1.0	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0
113	Minnesota	4.5	3.1	1.4	-3.0	-1.8	0.0	5.9	0.0	-1.0
114	DePaul	4.4	-1.3	1.1	-1.8	-0.2	1.8	4.8	0.0	0.0
115	U Mass	4.3	0.1	-0.4	-0.2	-0.4	0.5	4.7	0.0	0.0
116	Toledo	4.2	1.2	1.1	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0
117	Pittsburgh	3.8	1.3	0.3	-1.6	-1.2	0.4	4.5	0.0	0.0
118	Missouri	3.6	4.0	0.8	-2.5	-1.3	0.5	4.0	0.0	-2.0
119	Marshall	3.6	0.9	0.6	1.2	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
120	Georgia St	3.5	-2.3	1.0	2.5	1.4	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0
121	S Carolina	3.3	-0.7	1.8	-1.3	-1.1	1.2	3.3	0.0	0.0
122	Winthrop	3.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.3	0.1	0.0	3.4	0.0	0.0
123	UNLV	3.0	-2.2	0.9	-2.2	-1.4	1.3	6.5	0.0	0.0
124	Iona	2.9	-2.7	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	0.0	6.5	0.0	0.0
125	Liberty	2.9	-0.1	0.9	1.2	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
126	Pacific	2.8	-0.9	0.0	-0.4	0.3	0.0	3.8	0.0	0.0
127	California	2.8	-0.2	-0.6	1.3	0.6	0.0	1.8	0.0	0.0
128	Akron	2.8	-1.2	0.6	-0.1	-0.1	0.0	3.5	0.0	0.0
129	Iowa State	2.7	-3.0	2.5	-2.4	-2.2	1.8	6.9	0.0	-1.0
130	NC-Grnsboro	2.6	-0.4	1.5	-0.8	-0.1	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0
131	E Tenn St	2.4	-1.5	1.9	0.9	0.9	0.0	2.4	0.0	-2.0
132	Bowling Grn	2.4	-2.2	0.1	0.8	0.3	0.0	4.4	0.0	-1.0
133	S Utah	2.3	-1.6	-0.9	2.3	1.5	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0
134	Old Dominion	2.2	-2.4	1.2	-0.1	0.4	0.0	3.1	0.0	0.0
135	North Texas	2.2	2.0	0.7	-0.8	-0.5	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0
136	Yale	2.2	1.4	0.9	-0.6	-0.4	0.0	2.9	0.0	-2.0
137	S Illinois	2.0	-4.2	0.3	2.3	1.0	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0
138	Grd Canyon	1.7	0.6	0.1	-0.7	-0.4	0.0	2.1	0.0	0.0
139	James Mad	1.7	-2.1	-1.6	0.1	0.0	0.0	5.4	0.0	0.0
140	N Dakota St	1.7	-2.5	0.1	2.6	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
141	Georgia	1.3	0.7	0.9	-2.6	-1.9	1.4	3.7	0.0	-1.0
142	UC Riverside	1.3	0.3	-1.5	0.3	0.6	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0
143	Cleveland St	1.3	-4.9	-2.2	2.2	1.0	0.0	3.2	0.0	2.0
144	Charlotte	1.2	-4.9	-1.3	-0.7	0.2	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
145	Tulane	1.1	-2.0	-0.5	0.8	0.4	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0
146	Santa Clara	1.1	-2.4	-0.7	0.8	0.6	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0
147	Temple	1.0	-1.2	1.7	0.6	-0.1	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
148	Kent State	1.0	-1.1	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
149	Jksnville St	0.9	-3.7	-0.1	2.5	1.3	0.0	0.9	0.0	0.0
150	Fla Atlantic	0.9	-0.8	-0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0
151	Portland St	0.8	-5.6	-0.5	-1.1	0.2	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
152	Wyoming	0.8	-2.7	-0.8	0.8	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0
153	Chattanooga	0.8	-3.0	-1.1	1.4	0.5	0.0	1.0	0.0	2.0
154	San Diego	0.8	-4.9	0.6	-1.0	1.4	0.0	4.7	0.0	0.0
155	Montana	0.8	-3.8	1.0	1.6	1.2	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0
156	Ste F Austin	0.7	-2.6	0.2	1.0	0.8	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.0
157	Fresno St	0.7	-3.8	1.5	2.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
158	Princeton	0.7	-2.6	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0
159	Coastal Car	0.6	-1.9	-0.1	0.0	-0.1	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0
160	Wofford	0.6	-1.5	1.5	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
161	Boston Col	0.6	-2.3	1.1	-1.2	-0.9	0.0	3.9	0.0	0.0
162	N Kentucky	0.5	-5.9	1.1	1.6	0.8	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0
163	Drexel	0.5	-2.5	-1.3	0.7	0.4	0.0	3.3	0.0	0.0
164	TX Southern	0.5	-5.0	-1.3	0.8	0.4	0.0	5.5	0.0	0.0
165	Seattle	0.3	-4.0	-0.4	1.7	1.2	0.0	1.8	0.0	0.0
166	Abl Christian	0.1	-0.4	-0.6	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
167	Boston U	-0.1	-4.3	-0.8	2.2	1.3	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0
168	Morehead St	-0.1	-2.9	-2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.7	0.0	0.0
169	LA Lafayette	-0.2	-4.6	0.4	-0.6	-0.7	0.0	5.2	0.0	0.0
170	Duquesne	-0.3	-1.3	0.0	-2.8	-2.0	0.0	5.8	0.0	0.0
171	Utah Val St	-0.3	-3.7	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0
172	Miami (OH)	-0.3	-4.1	-0.2	2.5	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
173	Oral Roberts	-0.4	-1.3	-0.8	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.9	0.0	0.0
174	St Peters	-0.5	-5.0	-1.3	2.2	1.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0
175	Hofstra	-0.5	-3.5	0.9	-0.2	-0.1	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0
176	N Colorado	-0.6	-5.4	0.8	1.4	1.1	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
177	Pepperdine	-0.7	0.8	-0.5	-1.4	-1.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
178	Bradley	-0.7	-1.8	0.6	-0.8	0.0	0.0	1.1	0.0	0.0
179	App State	-0.9	-4.1	-0.3	2.1	1.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
180	Stony Brook	-0.9	-5.0	-0.3	0.7	0.9	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0
181	Fla Gulf Cst	-0.9	-7.7	-0.7	-0.1	-0.3	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
182	Bryant	-1.0	-2.6	-2.8	1.4	1.1	0.0	1.8	0.0	0.0
183	E Kentucky	-1.0	-3.4	-1.7	-0.5	-0.1	0.0	4.7	0.0	0.0
184	Indiana St	-1.2	-1.3	0.1	-0.6	0.2	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
185	Rice	-1.2	-4.5	-1.3	1.3	1.0	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0
186	Ball State	-1.2	-3.3	0.7	-1.3	-1.1	0.0	3.9	0.0	0.0
187	South Dakota	-1.3	-2.9	0.3	0.8	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
188	Navy	-1.4	-1.8	-1.5	1.4	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
189	Harvard	-1.4	-0.5	0.7	-0.5	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-1.0
190	Arkansas St	-1.5	-5.9	-1.3	2.2	1.1	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0
191	Cal Baptist	-1.5	-3.8	-1.4	0.4	0.4	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0
192	Towson	-1.5	-7.5	-0.3	-1.2	-0.4	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
193	TX El Paso	-1.6	-2.0	-1.1	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
194	S Mississippi	-1.6	-5.3	-0.5	0.3	1.1	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0
195	Delaware	-1.6	-5.0	-1.0	2.6	1.2	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
196	Nicholls St	-1.6	-4.7	-0.6	-1.7	-0.7	0.0	6.1	0.0	0.0
197	Monmouth	-1.8	-5.1	-1.0	-0.3	0.0	0.0	2.7	0.0	2.0
198	S Florida	-1.9	-3.0	0.2	-2.3	-2.1	0.4	5.9	0.0	-1.0
199	Mercer	-1.9	-1.7	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	0.0	0.9	0.0	0.0
200	Sam Hous St	-1.9	-3.3	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
201	Valparaiso	-1.9	-4.7	0.1	-1.1	0.1	0.0	3.7	0.0	0.0
202	Hawaii	-2.1	-3.5	-0.4	-1.3	-1.3	0.0	4.5	0.0	0.0
203	TX-San Ant	-2.1	-2.2	-0.2	-0.7	-0.4	0.0	1.3	0.0	0.0
204	IPFW	-2.3	-8.7	-0.6	0.3	0.3	0.0	6.5	0.0	0.0
205	Geo Mason	-2.3	-1.7	-0.4	-1.7	-1.1	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0
206	St Josephs	-2.3	-4.8	-0.2	1.4	1.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
207	U Penn	-2.4	-1.1	0.6	-1.2	-0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
208	TX-Arlington	-2.5	-5.6	0.8	-1.4	-1.2	0.0	4.9	0.0	0.0
209	Hartford	-2.5	-3.8	-0.9	-0.5	-0.3	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0
210	Prairie View	-2.6	-6.1	-1.2	1.3	0.7	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0
211	S Alabama	-2.6	-3.9	-0.4	-2.4	-1.5	0.0	5.6	0.0	0.0
212	Texas State	-2.6	-4.7	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.0	-0.2	0.0	0.0
213	Marist	-2.7	-6.8	-2.3	1.2	0.0	0.0	3.3	0.0	2.0
214	IL-Chicago	-2.9	-8.7	-0.5	-1.2	-0.4	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
215	CS Bakersfld	-2.9	-1.9	-1.2	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
216	E Carolina	-2.9	-2.3	-1.5	-0.2	-0.4	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
217	Illinois St	-3.1	-5.0	-0.3	-0.1	-0.4	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0
218	La Salle	-3.1	-4.1	-0.2	0.8	0.3	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
219	Merrimack	-3.3	-6.7	-2.4	2.6	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
220	Tarleton State	-3.3	-5.3	-3.1	2.0	1.6	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.0
221	UC Davis	-3.4	-4.7	-0.5	0.8	0.1	0.0	0.9	0.0	0.0
222	NC-Wilmgton	-3.4	-5.3	-1.6	-0.8	-1.0	0.0	5.3	0.0	0.0
223	Col Charlestn	-3.5	-4.9	0.9	-2.4	-1.5	0.0	4.5	0.0	0.0
224	Lipscomb	-3.5	-6.2	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0
225	Wagner	-3.6	-4.7	-2.0	1.8	1.1	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
226	Bellarmine	-3.6	-2.3	-3.1	1.1	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
227	Campbell	-3.8	-6.1	-1.0	2.3	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
228	Radford	-3.9	-6.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.0
229	UMKC	-4.0	-5.3	-1.4	-0.9	-0.3	0.0	4.0	0.0	0.0
230	Detroit	-4.1	-4.3	-2.0	-0.6	-0.2	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0
231	Evansville	-4.1	-5.0	-0.8	1.0	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
232	E Washingtn	-4.3	0.2	-0.7	-3.1	-2.5	0.0	2.8	0.0	-1.0
233	Montana St	-4.4	-5.1	-1.4	1.6	0.7	0.0	-0.2	0.0	0.0
234	Albany	-4.4	-4.5	-1.0	-1.0	-0.6	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0
235	CS Fullerton	-4.5	-6.0	-0.6	0.1	0.5	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0
236	Idaho State	-4.5	-6.1	-1.9	2.1	0.9	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
237	Gard-Webb	-4.5	-4.7	-0.9	-0.2	-0.5	0.0	1.8	0.0	0.0
238	Oakland	-4.6	-7.1	-0.6	0.5	-0.2	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0
239	WI-Milwkee	-4.8	-6.3	-1.4	-0.7	-0.4	1.9	2.2	0.0	0.0
240	Mt St Marys	-4.8	-4.9	-2.1	0.1	-0.4	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0
241	Maryland BC	-4.9	-2.5	-1.0	-0.1	-0.5	0.0	2.2	-3.0	0.0
242	Jackson St	-4.9	-7.7	-2.9	0.4	-0.2	0.0	4.5	0.0	1.0
243	LA Monroe	-5.0	-7.7	-0.6	0.1	-0.2	0.0	3.5	0.0	0.0
244	Niagara	-5.0	-6.1	-1.8	1.0	0.3	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0
245	Morgan St	-5.0	-5.4	-3.1	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.5	0.0	2.0
246	Fairfield	-5.0	-8.2	-1.6	2.1	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
247	Portland	-5.0	-9.8	-1.8	-1.9	-2.4	0.0	7.9	3.0	0.0
248	Rider	-5.1	-8.6	-0.1	-0.4	0.3	0.0	3.6	0.0	0.0
249	Longwood	-5.2	-7.4	-2.7	-0.3	-0.3	0.0	3.6	0.0	2.0
250	Mass Lowell	-5.2	-5.1	-1.6	0.1	-0.6	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
251	Florida Intl	-5.2	-7.5	0.1	-1.9	-0.9	0.0	5.0	0.0	0.0
252	LIU	-5.3	-6.0	-2.5	0.5	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0
253	GA Southern	-5.4	-6.3	0.8	0.1	-0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
254	Elon	-5.4	-4.7	-1.9	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
255	VA Military	-5.4	-3.3	-2.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
256	Rob Morris	-5.6	-9.5	-0.7	-2.0	-1.3	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
257	New Mexico	-5.6	-7.6	0.9	-1.2	-2.0	0.0	2.4	2.0	0.0
258	Siena	-5.7	-4.1	-1.0	-2.1	-0.9	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0
259	N Hampshire	-5.8	-6.4	-2.4	1.5	0.9	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
260	Canisius	-5.9	-6.4	-0.9	0.9	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
261	American	-6.0	-5.5	-1.4	1.1	-0.7	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
262	St Fran (PA)	-6.1	-7.4	-0.9	1.6	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
263	Stetson	-6.3	-6.5	-2.7	2.0	0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
264	Troy	-6.4	-7.5	-1.1	0.9	0.7	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0
265	Quinnipiac	-6.4	-7.1	-1.5	1.3	-0.1	0.0	1.1	0.0	0.0
266	Geo Wshgtn	-6.4	-5.6	-0.8	-1.5	-0.8	0.0	2.2	0.0	0.0
267	Brown	-6.5	-4.0	-0.6	-0.4	-0.9	0.0	0.5	0.0	-1.0
268	TN State	-6.5	-10.1	-0.6	-2.3	-0.5	0.0	7.0	0.0	0.0
269	Central Mich	-6.5	-8.4	1.1	-2.6	-1.5	0.0	5.9	0.0	-1.0
270	NC-Asheville	-6.5	-6.3	-2.4	1.2	1.1	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0
271	Citadel	-6.6	-5.9	-2.2	1.1	-0.2	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0
272	W Illinois	-6.6	-8.7	-2.6	0.2	0.4	0.0	4.1	0.0	0.0
273	Youngs St	-6.9	-7.4	-1.8	-0.2	-0.1	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0
274	Dartmouth	-6.9	-4.3	-1.2	-0.8	-1.0	0.0	2.3	0.0	-2.0
275	Jacksonville	-7.0	-8.0	-1.2	-1.7	-0.5	0.0	4.4	0.0	0.0
276	Austin Peay	-7.1	-5.6	0.4	-2.0	-1.5	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0
277	NJIT	-7.1	-7.1	-1.2	-0.9	-0.4	0.0	2.6	0.0	0.0
278	Fordham	-7.1	-8.9	-1.3	-0.2	-0.9	0.0	4.2	0.0	0.0
279	Samford	-7.2	-6.8	-1.5	-0.5	-0.9	1.2	1.3	0.0	0.0
280	Army	-7.2	-2.3	-1.5	-0.5	-0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	-2.0
281	Sacred Hrt	-7.2	-8.3	-1.4	1.8	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
282	Loyola-MD	-7.3	-3.3	-2.0	-1.2	-0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
283	Manhattan	-7.4	-8.7	-1.7	1.2	0.7	0.0	1.2	0.0	0.0
284	AR Lit Rock	-7.4	-5.8	-0.5	-1.0	-1.1	0.0	0.9	0.0	0.0
285	TX-Pan Am	-7.4	-6.6	-1.0	-1.0	-0.8	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
286	Sac State	-7.5	-5.5	-0.9	-1.7	-0.5	0.0	1.1	0.0	0.0
287	Cal St Nrdge	-7.6	-6.7	-1.7	-1.3	-0.8	0.0	2.9	0.0	0.0
288	NC A&T	-7.6	-8.8	-2.2	-0.6	-0.3	0.0	4.2	0.0	0.0
289	Cornell	-7.7	-5.8	-1.4	0.7	-1.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
290	Bucknell	-7.7	-6.3	0.4	-1.2	-0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
291	Kennesaw St	-7.7	-9.3	-3.7	1.4	0.4	0.0	3.4	0.0	0.0
292	Grambling St	-7.8	-9.4	-2.2	0.4	0.8	0.0	2.5	0.0	0.0
293	N Florida	-7.9	-8.2	-0.8	1.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
294	Southern	-7.9	-8.9	-2.7	-0.8	-0.7	0.0	5.2	0.0	0.0
295	Middle Tenn	-8.0	-7.7	0.0	-0.7	-1.3	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0
296	Lehigh	-8.1	-9.0	-1.1	1.5	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
297	Lafayette	-8.1	-5.2	-1.7	-0.6	-0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
298	SE Missouri	-8.2	-7.7	-2.4	1.3	0.4	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
299	TN Tech	-8.2	-9.6	-2.4	0.5	0.3	0.0	3.0	0.0	0.0
300	Binghamton	-8.3	-8.6	-2.7	0.3	-0.1	0.0	2.8	0.0	0.0
301	Wm & Mary	-8.4	-7.8	-0.3	0.6	-0.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
302	Lamar	-8.5	-8.9	-0.4	-1.2	-0.4	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0
303	New Orleans	-8.5	-7.7	-1.9	-0.6	-0.3	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
304	Lg Beach St	-8.5	-6.3	-1.1	-0.6	-0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
305	Norfolk St	-8.6	-5.8	-1.5	-1.4	-1.0	0.0	1.1	0.0	0.0
306	Cal Poly	-8.8	-8.8	-2.3	-1.1	-0.3	0.0	3.8	0.0	0.0
307	St Fran (NY)	-9.0	-7.4	-1.5	-2.4	-1.3	0.0	3.6	0.0	0.0
308	Holy Cross	-9.2	-5.1	-2.2	-1.1	-0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
309	Florida A&M	-9.3	-8.3	-3.0	1.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
310	Idaho	-9.4	-11.7	-0.4	-3.0	-1.2	0.0	6.9	0.0	0.0
311	Hampton	-9.5	-10.0	-1.4	-0.8	-1.2	0.0	4.0	0.0	0.0
312	W Michigan	-9.5	-9.0	-0.3	-1.9	0.1	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0
313	McNeese St	-9.7	-9.8	-1.1	-2.5	-1.8	0.0	5.5	0.0	0.0
314	High Point	-9.8	-8.3	-2.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
315	N Alabama	-9.9	-7.0	-2.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
316	UC San Diego	-9.9	-6.1	-3.0	-0.6	-0.6	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0
317	Columbia	-10.1	-6.3	-1.2	-0.9	-1.4	0.0	1.7	0.0	-2.0
318	Coppin State	-10.1	-8.8	-2.9	-2.7	-0.5	0.0	4.8	0.0	0.0
319	Howard	-10.4	-10.5	-1.2	-2.7	0.1	0.7	3.2	0.0	0.0
320	W Carolina	-10.5	-6.0	-0.8	-2.7	-2.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0
321	F Dickinson	-10.7	-7.3	-1.3	-1.5	-0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
322	North Dakota	-10.7	-7.7	-0.9	-1.6	-0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
323	E Michigan	-10.7	-9.6	1.9	-3.4	-1.1	0.0	1.4	0.0	0.0
324	N Arizona	-10.7	-8.9	-1.9	-1.1	-1.2	0.0	2.3	0.0	0.0
325	WI-Grn Bay	-10.8	-7.7	-0.7	-1.7	-1.4	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0
326	Air Force	-10.9	-8.9	-0.8	-0.8	-0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
327	Presbyterian	-10.9	-10.4	-2.2	1.4	0.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
328	SE Louisiana	-11.0	-10.7	-1.9	0.0	-0.4	0.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
329	NC Central	-11.0	-10.9	-0.5	-3.1	-2.0	0.0	5.5	0.0	0.0
330	Central Ark	-11.3	-9.1	-1.7	-0.6	-0.8	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0
331	Dixie State	-11.5	-9.4	-3.1	0.5	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
332	Alcorn State	-11.5	-12.2	-2.4	-2.3	-2.4	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
333	Maine	-11.7	-10.0	-2.9	-0.9	0.5	0.0	1.6	0.0	0.0
334	Neb Omaha	-12.2	-8.9	-1.0	-0.8	-2.3	0.0	0.9	0.0	0.0
335	N Illinois	-12.2	-11.9	0.8	-1.9	-0.7	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
336	Charl South	-12.7	-11.9	-1.3	-1.1	-1.1	0.0	2.7	0.0	0.0
337	E Illinois	-13.0	-8.9	-0.5	-2.7	-1.3	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0
338	IUPUI	-13.0	-8.5	-1.5	-1.9	-1.7	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0
339	TN Martin	-13.2	-12.6	0.4	-3.8	-2.0	0.0	4.9	0.0	0.0
340	SIU Edward	-13.2	-10.1	-3.0	-0.6	-1.0	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
341	NW State	-13.5	-9.0	-3.4	-0.7	-0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
342	TX A&M-CC	-13.8	-11.0	-1.1	-2.0	-1.5	0.0	1.9	0.0	0.0
343	SC Upstate	-14.0	-10.1	-3.3	-1.0	-1.1	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
344	Central Conn	-14.4	-10.0	-2.7	-1.5	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
345	Denver	-14.5	-11.0	-0.8	-2.6	-1.8	0.0	1.7	0.0	0.0
346	Beth-Cook	-14.5	-7.0	-2.4	-3.4	-2.0	0.0	3.2	0.0	-3.0
347	Alab A&M	-14.6	-11.7	-3.9	1.2	-0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
348	Incar Word	-14.6	-11.0	-3.6	-1.5	-1.0	0.0	2.4	0.0	0.0
349	San Jose St	-15.1	-11.5	-2.7	0.3	-1.7	0.0	0.6	0.0	0.0
350	Houston Bap	-15.2	-11.0	-2.7	-1.1	-0.8	0.0	0.4	0.0	0.0
351	St. Thomas (MN)	-17.3	-13.9	-3.9	-0.2	-0.8	0.0	1.5	0.0	0.0
352	S Car State	-19.7	-15.2	-3.7	-1.4	-0.2	0.0	0.8	0.0	0.0
353	Ark Pine Bl	-19.8	-13.7	-1.7	-3.1	-1.5	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
354	Alabama St	-19.9	-14.7	-3.5	-0.6	-1.6	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
355	Delaware St	-20.3	-15.2	-3.9	-0.4	-0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
356	Maryland ES	-20.3	-13.4	-3.3	-1.9	-1.2	0.0	1.5	0.0	-2.0
357	Chicago St	-27.1	-18.8	-3.5	-2.7	-1.7	0.0	-0.4	0.0	0.0
358	Miss Val St	-29.2	-22.1	-3.4	-1.8	-1.9	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

A Quick 2021 Note on Teams That Didn’t Play Last Season

We should note that several schools, including the Ivy League, Maryland-Eastern Shore, and Bethune-Cookman, did not play last year. So their ratings could be a little less reliable.

We treated players that played for them two seasons ago as if they played last year, and used ratings information from two seasons ago. That may not be the best way to handle it, but it’s hard to know since this is a unique situation.

What Do We Use These Ratings For?

These preseason ratings drive our preseason projections, and they serve as the Bayesian priors for our predictive ratings as the season progresses. (Translation: Our preseason ratings still impact our team ratings even months into the season, because that has shown to be more predictive than not.)

Using these ratings, we’ve run full-season projections, which are live on the site now. Key pages include:

College Basketball Projected Conference Standings. Projected conference records and full regular-season records, plus win odds for both the conference regular-season title and the postseason tournament.Bracketology Projections. Odds to make the NCAA tournament, plus projected seeding, and lots more details. (One of our faves is the Bracketology By Conference page.)NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions. Round-by-round advancement odds, including probability of a team making the Sweet 16, making the Final Four, and winning the championship.

This is all data-driven and automated, so it will update every morning throughout the season.

Ratings Accuracy

It’s worth noting that Ken Pomeroy, Dan Hanner and Bart Torvik have compared our preseason ratings and/or projections with other stat-based prognosticators in past years. Our finish has been consistently good, though it was consistently a bit behind Dan Hanner’s bottom-up, player-based projections while Dan was doing them (he unfortunately stopped after the 2017-18 season).

We also found this comparison for the most recent seasons, and while we cannot attest to the methodology or vouch for the accuracy, our ranking in predicting wins based on preseason ratings was similar to our past performance from other estimates. Note that we are ignoring the “Consensus” system on that page when tallying ranks.

2020-21: 3rd of 21 (behind Lefevre, INCC)2019-20: 5th of 20 (behind Lefevre, INCC, Sagarin, Pomeroy)2018-19: 4th of 18 (behind Torvik, Gasaway, Pomeroy*)2017-18: 2nd of 7 (behind Hanner)2016-17: 4th of 7 (behind Torvik, Hanner, Gasaway)2015-16: 2nd of 7 (behind Hanner)2014-15: 2nd of 4 (behind Hanner)2013-14: 2nd of 4 (behind Hanner)2012-13: 1st of 3

It’s worth noting that this analysis used the final Pomeroy ratings as the “true” result, so Pomeroy may have a bit of an advantage here. (Links go to the comparison blog posts or Google Doc data files from Ken/Dan/Bart.)

Taking several years of data into account and placing some emphasis on long-term consistency, we’re objectively right up at the top of the standings for most accurate preseason computer rankings based on the tracking above. We aren’t as good as Hanner’s now-defunct projections were, but we’re as good as or better than systems like KenPom and ESPN BPI.

In terms of human ratings, John Gasaway leads the pack. He has performed only slightly worse than our computer ratings longer term.

We say this not to brag, but to try to preemptively defend ourselves against the inevitable “Team X is WAY too high/low in your rankings! You guys have no idea what you’re doing!” comments. While our rankings are by no means perfect, the projections they drive have more than held their own in comparisons with other “famous” projection systems. We expect them to do so again this season.

Some Final Advice On Interpreting Preseason College Basketball Rankings

Some people get quite worked up about preseason college basketball rankings—especially when our approach thinks their favorite team is going to be worse than the prevailing consensus.

Differences are to be expected, though. No one else ranks teams exactly like we do, and our approach often discounts things that media analysts and other basketball “experts” believe to be important, because we haven’t found any hard data to back up their supposed value.

Just remember, we’re going to get plenty of individual teams wrong this year, and some teams very wrong, for a variety of reasons. But that’s inevitable when the challenge is to project over 300 different teams. If we’re down on your team, just hope that we’re wrong! No system is perfect, and just like the rest of them, ours has both strengths and weaknesses.

We also have very specific goals for our preseason college basketball team ratings, which include predicting both the margins of victory of future college basketball games and the end-of-season ratings of all 358 teams, in a way that minimizes error over the entire universe of games and teams. That goal doesn’t line up with the motivations of many other rankings-makers.

Look at Ratings, Not Just Rankings

Finally, please remember to look at our team ratings and not just rankings, because ratings tell a much more precise story.

For example, Maryland is our No. 22 team in our preseason rankings this year. However, their rating is less than one point lower than No. 12 Baylor’s rating, meaning that there’s a cluster of 11 teams all rated within one point of one another, a very slim difference.

So, don’t overreact to a team’s ranking number. Look at the rating as well, and you’ll be able to tell which generally expected performance tier a team is in.

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