10 Top Props: Our Favorite Super Bowl Prop Bets For Chiefs vs. Bucs

February 1, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

Will we be talking about Super Bowl Ronald soon? (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

It’s been a while since we’ve done a Super Bowl props piece. However, with legal sports betting sweeping across the US and the availability of Super Bowl prop bets growing rapidly, we can no longer resist adding our two cents of data-driven analysis to the fray. (Hopefully it ends up being worth more than that.)

Below are 10 of our favorite prop bets for Super Bowl LV between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. We like these props for a variety of reasons — mostly because we think they are likely +EV bets (translation: worth the risk of making them), but also because of the entertainment and rooting value they will provide.

After all, at least part of the appeal of having some action on various prop bets during the Super Bowl is the excitement of having something riding on a lot of different plays and potential outcomes throughout the evening.

Previous Super Bowl Props Analysis

We have already published an in-depth analysis of the Super Bowl MVP odds, 1st half scoring in the Super Bowl, and Super Bowl touchdown scoring props. Some of the props we highlight in this post have been referenced and discussed in those prior articles, but we have a little more to say about them here.

As of post time on Monday, February 1, all of the Super Bowl props below are currently available at either DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), BetMGM (MGM), or PointsBet (PB). For each prop we list where the best line we found was, but you may find similar props elsewhere, and/or betting odds can change over time and from sportsbook to sportsbook. So please use the analysis as you see fit.

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Now, let’s get to the 10 top props. We have organized them in descending order by the odds, from most likely to win (with lower payouts) to least likely to win (if you like taking a big risk on a long shot).

Prop #1: Quarterback to Win MVP at -275 (MGM)

Content:

We covered this one in our MVP Odds article, but we see value in just sticking with one of the quarterbacks to win the MVP Award. Is it a lock or guaranteed? No. But the majority of MVP Awards have been won by quarterbacks, and that trend has been climbing over time.

Further, in Super Bowls with very high expected scoring like this one, the frequency with which quarterbacks have won has been even higher.

We think this showdown between Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady will result in the winner claiming the MVP Award at a better rate than the current break even point on this one (73.3%).

Prop #2: Travis Kelce to Score a TD at -175 (DK)

Travis Kelce has scored in 12 of 17 games (71%) for Kansas City this year. In games with an over/under of 52 or higher, he has scored in 9 of 11 games (82%), totaling 11 total touchdowns.

Kelce did not score in the regular season matchup against Tampa Bay, but that’s the last time he played in a game where he didn’t score, scoring in six straight games since. Kelce can score in a number of ways, from distance or by running after the catch, by being a big goal line target, or by even catching shovel passes near the end zone.

The break even rate for this prop at -175 is only 63.6%, so the market seems to be heavily weighting his scoreless performance against Tampa Bay in the last matchup. If that’s the case, we’re inclined to trust a season’s worth of data over a one-game sample.

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Prop #3: Patrick Mahomes -27.5 Passing Yards vs. Tom Brady at -115 (FD)

Our passing yards projections for the Super Bowl project Patrick Mahomes at 335.5 yards and Tom Brady at 281.5 yards. Compared to the current odds on most passing yardage props, our projections represent an over lean on Mahomes and an under lean on Brady; most props have Mahomes at around 327.5 yards passing and Brady right around 300.5.

So you could take either side of that individually. But you can also play both against each other in this “vs.” comparative prop, where we like Mahomes to cover the 27.5 yard spread. That way if one of our two leans here is wrong, you still stand a fighting chance to win the bet via the other half of the bet.

This Super Bowl appears to set up as a Mahomes volume passing game for several reasons. First, the Chiefs have been far more pass-heavy in games in which they are only favored by a small amount and in which the over/under line is higher than typical for them.

Second, the Bucs have the best rush defense in the league, which could lead Kansas City to favor a short passing game in lieu of running the ball often during the early and middle parts of the game.