Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds, Predictions & Starting Pitchers

Apr 13, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Yariel Rodriguez (29) delivers a pitch against the Colorado Rockies in the second inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY SportsThe Blue Jays host the Astros on Canada Day in TorontoToronto is averaging 6.6 runs per game over its last five, going 3-2 in the processSee the Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays odds, predictions, and probable pitchers for July 1

A Canada Day tradition continues in Toronto on Monday as the Blue Jays (38-45, 20-21 home) host the Houston Astros (42-41, 18-22 away) in a matinee at 3:07 pm ET on the holiday Monday north of the border.

Still struggling to win with any consistency, the Jays have at least seen their bats wake up of late, pounding out 33 runs in their last five (6.6 runs per game) despite falling 8-1 to the Yankees last time out.

With rookie Yariel Rodriguez on the mound – and coming off his worst start in the majors – Toronto enters Monday as home underdogs in the Astros vs Blue Jays odds.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Odds

The Astros are priced as -142 road favorites on Monday with the Jays coming back as +120 home underdogs. The runline shows Houston at +110 to win by multiple runs with Toronto -130 to keep the score within a run.

The over/under is sitting at 8.5 with the over favored at -118.

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Odds as of July 1 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings states.

Winners of nine of their last ten, Houston has clawed above .500 for the first time this season and now trails Seattle by just 3.5 games in the AL West. Their MLB division odds are now as short as +165.  The Astros are also 3.5 games behind Kansas City for the final AL Wild-Card berth.

Toronto is 7.5 games back of a Wild-Card spot.

Hunter Brown vs Yariel Rodriguez

BrownVSRodriguez

After an encouraging start to his big-league career – posting a 3.86 ERA over 11.2 innings in his first three starts – Rodriguez has been much shakier in his last two, which were separated by nearly two months due to thoracic spine inflammation.

In his first start since returning from injury, he went just 1.1 innings against the Guardians, allowing five runs (four earned) on two hits and three walks with one strikeout. That start alone raised his ERA from 4.11 to its current 5.94.

None of the Houston hitters have ever faced Rodriguez before.

Brown, like the vast majority of his Astro teammates, had a horrendous start to the year. The 25-year-old righty had a 9.86 ERA in five starts by the end of April. But he’s brought that down to 4.37 over his last ten appearances, and has been absolutely unhittable over his last four. In that span, Brown has given up just one run on 16 hits and seven walks in 25 innings (0.920 WHIP) with 30 strikeouts.

His peripherals suggest he’s been relatively unlucky, to boot. Brown’s xERA (3.33) and xFIP (3.54) are both considerably lower than his actual ERA.

There is very little history between Brown, who’s in his second full season, and the Toronto lineup. But what history exists mostly favors the pitcher. In 18 total ABs, Blue Jay hitters have just three hits (.167 average), though all three of those hits were homers (one each from Isiah Kiner-Falefa, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho).

Most of that history stems from one start against Toronto last season, when Brown went 6.0 IP in a 5-1 loss with five Ks and three walks.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Picks

While Toronto’s bats have been hot of late, it’s hard not to back Brown and the Astros in this matinee. The ultra-talented righty, who averages 95.9 on his four-seam fastball, is in a groove.

His home/road splits are concerning, with a 5.87 ERA in away games this year compared to 3.44 at home, but it was the opposite last year (3.80 ERA on the road versus 6.56 ERA at home), and in his last two road starts, he’s combined to go 12.0 innings while allowing just one run on nine hits with 13 strikeouts.

HOU vs TOR picks: Astros moneyline (-142) – two units

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