These Are the Most Likely Upsets in 2024 March Madness & Best Underdogs to Bet

Mar 20, 2024; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; The Samford Bulldogs huddle at the end of their NCAA first round practice session at Delta Center. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY SportsEvery March Madness tournament is full of upsets and surprisesTrying to identify which upsets will happen in the NCAA Men’s Tournament can be quite difficultSee the most likely upsets for the first-round of the March Madness tournament below

One of the biggest thrills of the March Madness tournament is picking the upsets you think will happen and then watching all the upsets unfold in chaotic fashion. But the upsets you pick aren’t always the upsets that do happen, which is a big reason why everyone loves the NCAA Men’s Tournament so much.

As we approach the 2024 March Madness tournament, let me help you with picking some of these upsets and/or the underdogs that are showing value in the first round. I am breaking this post down into three parts, because not everyone will have the same definition of “upset” in this tournament: (1) bracket upsets to consider in the first round, (2) underdogs the public is betting, and (3) underdogs I am betting. You can jump to your preferred section with the links below or just keep scrolling.

Bracket Upsets | Public-Backed First Round Underdogs | Underdogs I Am Betting

Most Likely March Madness Bracket Upsets

In this section, I am going to focus on what I am referring to as “bracket upsets.” This simply refers to games where I am saying the worse-seeded team will win, not considering any betting odds. This section is for those who are filling out March Madness brackets and nothing more. In this section, I am going to reference the odds in helping me reveal the teams most likely to pull off upsets / beat a higher-ranked team in the first round of the tournament. I am leaving all 9v8 matchups out of this section, though, as there really isn’t any upset happening in those games.

Let’s begin:

#11 New Mexico to beat #6 Clemson – it’s not often we see an 11-seed favored at all sportsbooks, but here we are. Sportsbooks list New Mexico’s odds to win as short as -147, which comes out to a near 60% chance to pull off the “upset”#10 Drake to beat #7 Washington State – all sportsbooks are favoring Drake with some giving as good as a 55.6% chance to win#11 Oregon to beat #6 South Carolina – not all sportsbooks have the Ducks listed as the favorites to win this game but some are giving them as short as -120 odds to do so, and no book has Oregon listed as an underdog#10 Nevada to beat #7 Dayton – every sportsbook favors Nevada with some odds giving them as much as a 54.6% chance to win

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If you’re fixed on picking a certain number of upsets with each seed, here are the 12/13/14/15 seeds most likely to pull off the upset based on the odds:

Best 12-seed upset: James Madison

This is a bit of a close call with James Madison and Grand Canyon, but we’re giving the Dukes (James Madison) the nod. Both of these 12-seeds are 5.5-point underdogs against their fifth-seeded opponents, but you can find longer odds on Grand Canyon beating Saint Mary’s than you can with James Madison to beat Wisconsin.

James Madison is as short as +178 to win their Round of 64 matchup, which comes out to a 36% chance to pull off the upset.

Best 13-seed upset: Samford

When you look at the significant March Madness injuries, there is no team more banged up than Kansas right now. Kevin McCullar Jr has already been ruled out for the tournament, and Hunter Dickinson dislocated his shoulder on March 9 but is expected to play.

Samford is as short as +228 to pull off the upset, which comes out to a 30.5% chance to win the game.

Best 14-seed upset: Morehead State

Though Illinois may have the best metrics of the 3-seeds in this tournament, the same can be said about Morehead State against the other 14-seeds. The Eagles are as short as +525 to win, which implies a 16% chance.

Best 15-seed upset: Western Kentucky

Picking a 15-seed to move on in your bracket is not for the faint of heart. (It doesn’t happen that often.) If you’re set on picking one of these teams to move on, Western Kentucky is being given the best chance by sportsbooks. The Hilltoppers odds to win can be found as short as +650, which comes out to a probability of 13.3%.

March Madness First-Round Underdogs the Public Likes

In this section, I am focused on the real underdogs, based on the March Madness odds. The underdogs I am surfacing up here are the ones receiving the majority of moneyline handle. Here’s the dogs the public likes in the first round of the tournament (again, leaving out 9v8 matchups):

#11 NC State (+180) – 92% of moneyline handle#6 Clemson (+124) – 76% of moneyline handle#13 Samford (+250) – 58% of moneyline handle#6 South Carolina (+100) – 57% of moneyline handle

Check out all the March Madness public betting splits!

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Best March Madness First Round Underdogs to Bet

In this section, I am focusing on underdogs (based on betting lines) again, but am surfacing up the teams paying out plus-money to win that I am betting. Here’s who I like:

Samford (+250) at BetRivers

I mentioned Kansas’ leading scorer, Kevin McCullar Jr, already being ruled out for the NCAA Tournament earlier, but I didn’t get into the impact his absence has already had on the Jayhawks. McCullar left their regular season finale against Houston after just 15 minutes, and Kansas went on to lose 76-46. They also lost 72-52 to Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament without him.

I’m confident if the selection committee knew McCullars would miss the tournament, we would have seen Kansas come in as a 6/7-seed. KenPom ranks them 22nd overall and they’re 19th in NET.

Samford is a good 13-seed who plays fast and can score. In a game where Kansas will need their offense, I don’t believe they’ll get it done without McCullars.

Colorado State (+125) at bet365

My previous pick is more about me not liking Kansas, but this one is me really liking Colorado State. They’re very good at both ends of the court, play with a good tempo for the tournament, and get strong guard play from Isaiah Stevens. However, you can say all the same things about Texas.

I feel this is a coin-toss game and therefore really like the +125 odds available with Colorado State.

Morehead State (+575) at bet365

I am a subscriber to the “slow beats go” mentality in March Madness. When a team is used to having a lot of possessions in a game, they tend to get frustrated quickly when they’re all of a sudden slowed down. Illinois averages 69.9 possessions per 40 minutes, which is 56th. Morehead State plays at a much slower pace, only averaging 64.2 possessions per 40 minutes (335th).

As long as Illinois doesn’t come out and shoot the lights out in the first five minutes of the game, which they are certainly capable of doing, I think Morehead State’s pace can really bother them and get them out of their groove.

Also, if Colorado happens to hold on to their lead tonight and opens as an underdog against Florida, I’ll be betting them as well.

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