Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Picks, Predictions, Odds & Props for Game 1 of ALDS

May 30, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa (4) talks with Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) before the game at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY SportsAfter winning their first playoff series in over 20 years, the Twins head into the ALDS with the Astros as big underdogsHouston will send Justin Verlander to the mound while Minnesota counters with postseason rookie Bailey OberSee below for the Twins vs Astros odds, predictions, and picks for Game 1 of the ALDS

A massive weight was lifted off the Minnesota Twins franchise on Wednesday when the team finished off a two-game Wild Card sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays with a 2-0 shutout. The victory gave Minnesota (89-75, 40-41 away) its first playoff series win since 2002, but the reward is a best-of-five divisional series with the Goliaths of the American League, the Houston Astros (90-72, 39-42 home).

Minnesota opened as a +150 underdog to advance in the Twins vs Astros series odds. While that price has shortened a little to +135, the odds for Game 1 heavily favor the Twins falling in an early hole.

Twins vs Astros Odds

The  Astros are +134 on the runline to win by two or more. Minnesota is at -162 to keep the game within a run. The run total is at just 7.5 with the over slightly favored at -120.

First pitch at Minute Maid Park is slated for 4:45 pm ET/1:45 pm PT on Saturday afternoon. Regardless of which team you’re backing, SBD’s MLB odds page will show you which sportsbook currently has the best odds for your pick.

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When the Texas Rangers had the inside track on the #2 seed in the American League, the Baltimore Orioles were listed as the AL Pennant favorites. But when Houston claimed the AL’s second seed – and with it a first round bye – on the last day of the regular season, the Astros immediately shot past the O’s to the top of the Pennant odds (+176). Minnesota (+346) has the longest odds of the four remaining AL teams, and sits second-last in the World Series odds at +907, only ahead of Arizona.

Minnesota vs Houston Starting Pitchers for Game 1

It’s hard to feel optimistic about the Game 1 pitching matchup if you’re a Twins fan. While he’s past his prime at this point, 40-year-old Justin Verlander will get the ball for Houston. The three-time Cy Young-winner and two-time World Series champion proved he’s still a top-tier starter in the regular season, combining for a 3.22 ERA and 1.13 WHIP between his time with the Mets and Astros.

The main cause for concern was that Verlander’s strikeout rate (21.5%)  was the lowest it’s been since 2015.

Bailey Ober vs Justin Verlander

OberVSVerlander

Opposite Verlander will be Bailey Ober. Making his first career playoff start, Ober will try to build off a solid regular season which saw him add invaluable depth to the Minnesota rotation. The 28-year-old has faced Houston twice in his three-year career, but not since 2021. Both starts against the Astros were of the “quality” vintage: he went exactly five innings in both, giving up two runs and three runs, respectively, while striking out 12 total Houston hitters.

Yet, while Ober’s starts against the Astros look solid on the whole, his numbers against the batters currently in the Houston lineup are much less encouraging. This year’s Houston lineup has a bloated .340 average against Ober, lifetime, with a .392 OBP and .638 slugging percentage in 47 at-bats. They’ve mashed three home runs, three doubles, and a triple with five RBI.

As is the case with most teams/hitters in the majors, Verlander has excellent numbers against this Minnesota lineup. Twins hitters are slashing .149/.269/.299 against the 6’5 righty with three home runs, one double, and a massive 22 strikeouts in 67 total at-bats. Former Houston teammate Carlos Correa has the most encouraging track record against Verlander, going 5-12 with a homer, a double, three walks, and three RBI.

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Twins vs Astros Prediction: Game 1

Verlander didn’t enjoy a great postseason last year, despite the Astros winning it all. In 20 innings pitched over four starts, he posted an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.

Looking closer, he had two terrible starts (16 hits and 11 earned runs, combined, over 9.0 innings) against the Phillies and Mariners, and two rock-solid starts (7 hits and 2 earned runs over 11.0 innings) against the Yankees and Phillies (a second time around).

His track record against the Minnesota hitters strongly suggests Saturday’s start will be closer to the rock-solid end of the spectrum, while Ober’s own history against Houston’s lineup portends the exact opposite.

Twins vs Astros Game 1 Picks:

Astros moneyline (-156)Ober under 14.5 outs recorded (+105)

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