BetIQ Daily: Super Bowl Sunday Picks

BetIQ Daily: Super Bowl Sunday Picks

Sunday BetIQ includes a Super Bowl player prop based on some late news, plus a college basketball pick while you wait for the big game to start.

February 13, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

Blue Springs, Missouri product Kendall Blanton could be a Super Bowl surprise (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire)

BetIQ is ready for Super Bowl Sunday. The wait is over, and it’s nearly time for the big game.

There’s plenty of time before then, though, so we’re here with a pre-Super Bowl basketball pick as well.

Super Bowl Picks Available

Our thoughts on the game spread and total are available for subscribers. In addition, we have 10 team and player props for the game here. Down below, we’ll add a few other props today.

A few notes on the spread and total and what we are seeing:

The point spread is most commonly still at Rams -4 heading into Sunday. However, Pinnacle has moved the line to Rams -4.5 and with heavier juice on the favorites (-109 vs. -101 on the Bengals) this morning.  We’ll see if we see that movement gets reflected in other sportsbooks soon.

The over/under is almost universally at 48.5 points this morning, and we haven’t seen much movement there over the last two weeks. That’s fairly unusual for a recent Super Bowl, where the movement in the totals line is generally more volatile than the spread.

Pre-Super Bowl NCAAB Pick 1: St. John’s +3.5

NCAAB Spread Pickvs. Connecticut, Sunday at 12:00 p.m. ET on FOXThis is a playable model pick for Saturday at 54.4 percent cover odds, according to our Ensemble Forecast model.St. John’s has been about three points better in conference play than it was before January, as it had lots of lineup shuffling early.The biggest shift has been the emergence of Aaron Wheeler, who provides size inside on defense and is also shooting over 40 percent from three.

Super Bowl Prop: Kendall Blanton Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

With the news that Rams TE Tyler Higbee is out, we are adding backup Rams TE Kendall Blanton over his receiving yards prop as a play.We now project Blanton with 47 receiving yards in our Super Bowl player projections.Higbee averaged 38.6 yards in the 17 games (including two playoff games) before getting injured early in NFC Championship Game.He had more than 40 receiving yards in six straight games before the injury.Blanton had five catches for 57 yards in the NFC Championship Game after Higbee’s injury.Bengals are relatively weak in covering tight ends, allowing 63.6 yards per game, according to Football Outsiders.This line is low because Blanton is an unknown who had four career catches prior to his five-catch outing in the NFL Championship Game, but the opportunity is there for a surprise Super Bowl story.

Top Pick Performance Trends

Our algorithmic models use over a decade of data to predict every game across five sports.

As of post time, here are some highlights of prediction performance from our primary Ensemble Forecast model this season for playable-rated picks (52.5% confidence or better) against game-day betting lines:

NFL point spread picks: 48-37-2 (57%, +6.6 units)NBA moneyline picks: 106-89 (+12.1 units)College football over/under picks: 180-146-3 (55%, +17.7 units) #mc_embed_signup {background: #eee;}#mc_embed_signup div#mce-responses {margin: 0;width:96%;padding: 0;}#mc_embed_signup div.response {width: auto;padding: .5em 1em;font-weight:normal;margin: 0 0 3% 0;}#mc_embed_signup #mce-error-response {background: #d0091b;color: #fff;}#mc_embed_signup #mce-success-response {background: #006600; color: #fff;}#mc_embed_signup div.response a {color: inherit;text-decoration:underline;}