MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (7/31)

Below you will find my top three MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, July 31.

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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Elly De La Cruz (+420) & Jeimer Candelario (+460)

Using FantasyPros’ daily projections, Elly De La Cruz and Jeimer Candelario rank in the top five in home run projections. Today, they face Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago Cubs.

Hendricks is 2-9 with a 6.95 ERA. Opponents are batting .298 with 16 home runs against him over 80.1 innings.

Despite having an ERA through the roof at home (6.23), it’s even higher when pitching on the road (7.49).

The Reds have been feasting off this Cubs pitching staff in the first two games of the series, scoring a combined 13 runs. I expect another offensive showing for the home team.

Hendricks relies heavily on his fastball and changeup when throwing to lefties and will sprinkle in the sinker from time to time. Assuming both De La Cruz and Candelario will be hitting from the left side, this sets up nicely for both as they each have ISOs over .220 against all three of those pitch types. 

Nick Castellanos (+400)

We are buying low on Philly’s offense today after the team lost the first two games of the series against the Yankees.

Nestor Cortes is on the mound today. Just 24 hours ago, based on the rumors, we thought his Yankees career was over. Well, here we are, and he is still in pinstripes. 

Cortes has struggled over his last four starts. Over the past 30 days, his 7.45 ERA and 2.33 HR/9 are the highest among today’s starters. Of the 19 home runs he has allowed in 2024, 18 have been to right-handed hitters.

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On the other side of the diamond, Nick Castellanos has been one of the hottest hitters in the Phillies lineup over the last 14 days. In his last 11 games, Castellanos has hit .286, with five doubles and two homers.

Even if Cortes gets the hook early, both teams exhausted their bullpen last night, using six pitchers each. Over the last 30 days, the Yankees’ bullpen has allowed 15 home runs, the seventh-most in that period.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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Kurt Blakeway