Ravens vs 49ers Props – Best Player Props to Bet for Monday Night Football Week 16

Baltimore Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely (80), center, hauls in a reception against Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Darious Williams (31), left, and safety Andrew Wingard (42) during the third quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 17, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-7. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]Player props for Ravens vs 49ers Monday Night Football matchup are widely available at online sportsbooksShould you trust the two explosive offenses and bet overs or the two stingy defenses and bet players to go under their totals?See all the passing, rushing, receiving, and touchdown props for Ravens vs 49ers below as well as our predictions

NFL fans are receiving quite the Christmas gift this year as Lamar Jackson’s Ravens take on Brock Purdy’s 49ers. Not only are these two teams the Super Bowl favorites, but Jackson and Purdy are also the atop the NFL MVP odds. These two quarterbacks have plenty of star-power around them, including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, and Brandon Aiyuk, among others.

But which of these stars should you be targeting when betting props for the matchup? Let’s start by having a look at all the major player props available for this big-time Christmas Monday Night Football matchup, and then we’ll get into the props I am betting:

Ravens vs 49ers Player Props

Neither quarterback’s prop for passing yards is set that high, with Purdy at 252.5 and Jackson at 220.5, which shouldn’t be surprising since the Ravens have the sixth-best pass defense in the league and the 49ers are only allowing an average of 210 passing yards per game since their bye week (post-Chase Young addition). If you do like these quarterbacks to overcome the tough defenses they face, though, bet365 has boosted both QBs to throw for 2+ touchdowns from +300 to +400 for us.

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Christian McCaffrey’s rushing line is still at a very healthy 83.5, the highest among rushers in this game, despite the Ravens giving up the tenth-fewest rushing yards in the NFL—though, they do allow 4.3 yards per carry, which ranks 21st. Brandon Aiyuk has the highest receiving line among pass-catchers at 63.5, just slightly above Deebo Samuel’s 60.5.

The player prop lines and odds above are from DraftKings and FanDuel as of Friday. You can see the most recent lines on our NFL player props page.

Ravens vs 49ers Prop #1: Isaiah Likely Receiving Yards

Since Mark Andrews went down with his season-ending injury, Isaiah Likely has grown into a focal point of the Ravens offense. In three starts, Likely has posted the following stats:

Week 12: 4 receptions on 6 targets for 40 receiving yardsWeek 14: 5 receptions on 7 targets for 83 receiving yardsWeek 15: 5 receptions on 6 targets for 70 receiving yards

As you can see, Likely has surpassed 36.5 yards in all three starts, completely smashing it in each of his last two. Likely has seen a 19% target share and accounts for 25% of Lamar Jackson’s completions in those three games.

Yes, the 49ers have allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards to TEs (46.9), but their opponents are targeting their tight ends at a high rate. Opposing TEs are seeing an average of 7.7 targets per game against San Francisco, which is tied for eighth-most. I also find it hard to look at average tight end stats because so few teams actually feature a tight end in their passing game.

Here’s what it has looked like when the 49ers have faced pass-catching tight ends:

vs Darren Waller in Week 3: allowed 3 receptions for 20 receiving yards on 7 targets (Giants offense is bad)vs Zach Ertz in Week 4: 6 receptions for 53 receiving yards on 10 targets (pre-Trey McBride breakout)vs David Njoku in Week 6: 3 receptions for 24 receiving yards on 4 targets (PJ Walker at QB)vs TJ Hockenson in Week 7: 11 receptions for 86 yards on 12 targetsvs Evan Engram in Week 9: 4 receptions for 12 yards on 7 targetsvs Trey McBride in Week 15: 10 receptions for 102 yards on 11 targets

The data above shows us San Francisco has been vulnerable to athletic tight ends who are targeted in the passing game. (For the record, Dallas Goedert did not play when the 49ers took on the Eagles in Week 13. Jack Stoll got the start at TE with Goedert injured, but Albert Okwuegbunam saw the most snaps at TE.)

I foresee Baltimore being forced into a positive (pass-heavy) game script in this one, and Jackson will continue looking for his guy Likely.

The best price for this bet is actually found at bet365, but they’re only available in seven US states (NJ, CO, OH, VA, IA, KY & LA). If you are in one of those states and want to tail this bet, take Likely over 36.5 receiving yards at -110 odds at bet365 .

If you’re not located in one of those states, you’ll have to settle for DraftKings’ -115 odds.

Likely over 36.5 receiving yards (-115) at DraftKings

*I am anticipating this line will move ahead of publish; so, know that I would bet this as high as 45.5

Ravens vs 49ers Prop #2: Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards

There are two premises I am leaning on, along with the data (of course), for this bet: (1) the 49ers, specifically Kyle Shanahan, continued to learn how valuable Deebo Samuel is, and grew a further appreciation for him, during his latest injury that kept him out three games, which were all losses for San Francisco; and (2) when times get tough, Shanahan finds ways to get Christian McCaffrey and Samuel the ball, especially when preparing for a physical defense.

Since returning from injury, Deebo is averaging 8.4 touches per game and is turning those opportunities into 80.8 receiving yards and 12.8 rushing yards on average. He has gone over 60.5 receiving yards in four of those six games, which includes four of his last five. The two he did not were blowouts over the Jaguars, in his first game back, and Cardinals.

Baltimore’s defense, who ranks sixth against the pass, brings a physicality that I don’t feel suits Brandon Aiyuk’s game as well as it does Deebo Samuel’s. Shanahan is going to want to set the tone in this one early and often and he knows Deebo is the guy to do that for him. I expect the great play-caller to manufacture some touches for Samuel throughout this game and let the bruising receiver go to work.

The same goes here when it comes to finding the best price on Deebo’s receiving yards to go over. If you’re in a bet365 state, take it there at -110. If not, BetMGM is not far off with their -111, thankfully.

Samuel over 60.5 receiving yards (-111) at BetMGM

Saints vs Rams Touchdown Scorer Props

To the surprise of few, Christian McCaffrey is given the best odds to score the game’s first touchdown at +310, and has the best odds to score anytime at -255. Gus Edwards has the best odds to score the first TD among Ravens players. Same goes for anytime TD odds among Ravens players, as Edwards is +120.

Ravens vs 49ers Prop #3: Gus Edwards Anytime Touchdown

Gus Edwards was the man in the Ravens backfield prior to Keaton Mitchell began his ascension in early November. From Weeks 2-8, Edwards was averaging 13.9 carries per game and saw as many as 19 in Week 8. But even in Mitchell’s slow takeover of the backfield, Gus remained the goal line back and has scored a touchdown in six of his last eight games, totaling 10 touchdowns in that span.

With Mitchell now done for the season, I suspect we’ll see Edwards thrust back into the lead role.

The odds in the table above are from DraftKings, but they are actually the shortest odds you can find for Edwards to score a touchdown. Basically every other sportsbook has a better price, with Caesars offering the best at +163.

Gus Edwards anytime touchdown (+163) at Caesars

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