Steelers vs Bills Same Game Parlay Picks for Monday’s Wild Card Playoffs

Jan 6, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) rushes as Baltimore Ravens defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (92) defends during the first half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY SportsOur Steelers vs Bills same game parlay comes in at +146 odds with five legsCold, snow and wind should mean this game sees plenty of rushing eve nafter the game was moved to Monday eveningRead on for our Steelers vs Bills same game parlay picks below for Monday’s Wild Card Playoffs

The Steelers and Bills meet in windy, snowy Orchard Park in Buffalo and the elements have to be considered when making your Steelers vs Bills same game parlay picks. The Under, a close game and lots of rushing props is how we’re planning to attack this SGP.

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Steelers vs Bills Same Game Parlay Picks

Our Steelers vs Bills same-game parlay is focusing on alternate spreads and totals, plus rushing props on Najee Harris, James Cook and Josh Allen, totalling combined odds of +146 at DraftKings.

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Steelers vs Bills SGP Picks: Alternate Total Under

Both teams are 11-6 to the Under this season. Buffalo just went Under last week in a 21-14 win over the Dolphins, and are 7-3 to the Under in their past ten games.

Pittsburgh games have been going the opposite direction. They went under the total last week winning 17-10 in Baltimore, but are 4-1 to the Over in their past five games.

This game is expected to be below 20 degrees and to have wind gusts of up to 27 mph. That’s not even counting the possibility of more snow. There is a 52% chance of precipitation today in Orchard Park.

That could play havoc on the passing games for both teams. The total had sunk to sunk 33 until the game was moved to Monday and has since risen to 38.5 as Monday’s weather is still better than Sunday’s. If we add some points in this SGP alternate total market and make it 48.5, that’s a number that Steelers games have only gone over once all season. Let’s bump up the total and go Under in our Steelers vs Bills picks.

Steelers vs Bills same game parlay picks: Alternate total under 48.5

Steelers vs Bills SGP Picks: Steelers Alternate Spread

Take out two big losses by 23 and 24 points early in the season and Pittsburgh hasn’t lost by more than 17 points since October 1.

The Bills, despite winning five straight, only have one big win in that time over the Cowboys, 31-10. Otherwise, their other four wins have come by 7, 6, 2 and 3 points. Buffalo hasn’t covered as a double-digit favorite in any of the four times they were favored by this much this season. Look further back in the NFL team trends and they’re 0-8 in that situation.

Mix in thr weather we’ve already touched on, plus the fact Josh Allen is known to turn the ball over, something he’s done in 12/13 games, and it should be easy for Pittsburgh to stay within three scores.

Steelers vs Bills same game parlay picks: Steeler alternate spread +21.5 Expert Wild Card Weekend NFL Picks Against the SpreadRead More

Steelers vs Bills SGP Picks: Najee Harris Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh has been leaning on Najee Harris in recent games. In fact, he’s had his first, second and fifth-best games from a rushing yards standpoint in his last three games.

He carried the ball 26 times for 112 yards versus the Ravens, rushed 27 times for 122 yards versus the Seahawks and had 78 yards on 19 carries versus the Bengals.

He also found the endzone four times in those three games, equalling half of his season total of eight rushing touchdowns.

Harris and Jaylen Warren split many of the carries, but Harris would be the more likely recipient of extra touches on shorter runs.

The Bills have seen an opposing runner go over at least 50 yards in three of the past four games, with two rushers doing so last week against Miami. We’ll include Harris to go over an alternate rushing total of 50 in the Steelers vs Bills props.

Steelers vs Bills same game parlay picks: Najee Harris 50+ rushing yards

Najee Harris ‘More Confident’ In Second Playoff Game: ‘Probably Have Some Big Plays’ https://t.co/bG22G2Jghj #Steelers #Pittsburgh #NFL pic.twitter.com/s2jxsa8aoA

— Steelers Depot 7⃣ (@Steelersdepot) January 11, 2024

Steelers vs Bills SGP Picks: James Cook Rushing Yards

Using the same thought process here for James Cook and Buffalo. This game should still see to see a lot of rush attempts. Weather concerns or not, Buffalo has run the ball more often in recent weeks.

Cook put up 1,122 yards this year on the ground, highlighted by a 25-carry and 179-yard game with a touchdown against Dallas four games back. His totals have declined since in both carries and yards to 20-70, 16-48 and 13-36.

With the passing game possibyl slowed by weather and Gabe Davis out through injury in the Steelers vs Bills injury report, those carries should see an uptick this week. If we target 40+ rushing yards for Cook, that’s a number he’s gone over in six of seven recent games and in 13/17 games overall.

Should you want to bump that up to 50+ yards, he’s also accomplished that in ten games this season.

Steelers vs Bills same game parlay picks: James Cook 40+ rushing yards

With low temperatures, wind, and snow, Buffalo will likely to rely on its running game against a Steelers defense that hasn’t been great at containing opposing team’s running backs.

James Cook is in a great position to shine here.pic.twitter.com/oiBoMQtnjw

— Moody (@EricNMoody) January 11, 2024

Steelers vs Bills SGP Picks: Josh Allen Rushing Yards

Sticking with the rushing theme in this SGP, we’ll back Josh Allen to rush for at least 25 or more yards. That’s something he’s done in back-to-back games rushing for 67 yards on 15 carries last week and 44 yards on 11 carries the game prior.

Go back further and in Week 16 versus the Chargers he only rushed for 15 yards, but in the three games prior to that he had rushing totals of 24, 32 and 81. So 25+ yards is a total he’s hit in four of the past five games while falling short by one yard in another.

Allen has been Buffalo’s most dangerous weapon as a rusher, as he’s second overall in rushing touchdowns in the league with 15 and will surely have his share of run plays called on Sunday.

Steelers vs Bills same game parlay picks: Josh Allen 25+ rushing yards

SGP Season Record: 8-16, -4.97 units

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