Three NFL Week 7 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 7 Upset Picks To Consider (2023)

Three upset picks for NFL Week 7 stand out as value bets based on model predictions, matchup research, and/or recent news.

October 18, 2023 – by Jason Lisk

Falcons look to avoid turnovers at Tampa (Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Hitting an NFL Week 7 upset pick that the public didn’t see coming isn’t just about bragging rights. Historically, NFL underdogs tend to offer more fertile hunting grounds for betting value than favorites do.

In this article, we make our three favorite Week 7 upset picks based on moneyline odds, or the relative payout you’d get if you bet on the underdog to win the game outright.

Some of these upset picks will be close to coin-flip propositions, while others may be long shots that we expect to lose much more often than they win. (See the end of this article for important notes on expectations.)

The unifying theme is a belief that these picks are all sensible gambles from a risk vs. reward standpoint, and will prove to be profitable bets over the long run.

Upset Picks Results to Date

We keep track of our overall season performance against consensus moneyline odds (at publication time) for every upset pick we make in this column.

Past Season Performance

We started writing this article a few weeks into the 2021 NFL season. From inception through the end of the 2022 season, the picks we highlighted went 44-56-2 (a 44% win rate) for a total profit of +23.1 units, if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(Because we’re picking underdogs at plus-money odds, we don’t need to hit 52.4% or even 50% of them to turn a profit.)

If you want to see the archives, you can view the final 2022 article here and the 2021 end-of-year version here.

Current Season

Last Week: 1-2 for -0.8 units2023 Season: 5-13 for -6.3 units

We hit on one of the three picks last week, getting hurt by both a QB injury and a QB taking a safety late. (All 2023 season picks are now listed below.)

Washington (+119) went on the road to Atlanta and came away with a 24-16 win, as the Commanders defense rebounded.Chicago (+125) lost to Minnesota 19-13, despite holding the Vikings to only 12 first downs, thanks to three turnovers and an injury to QB Justin Fields.New England (+148) fell again, and a late safety by QB Mac Jones pushed the final score to 21-17, also blowing the point spread cover.

On the bright side, we continue get the best of closing line value between our Wednesday pick release and where the moneylines for our picks end up by kickoff time.

14 of our 18 picks so far this season have had closing line value. Unfortunately, we’ve gone 2-8 in close games decided by 7 points or fewer.

Want More Picks?

To get all our favorite betting picks for NFL Week 7, which may include point spread picks, over/under picks, props, or other bet types, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

Golf Pool Picks

Get an edge in your One And Done and Majors pools

Learn MoreGet Picks Now

Week 7 NFL Upset Picks

In the analysis below, “SU” means a team’s straight up win-loss record, while “ATS” means its record against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

Moneyline: +120Point Spread: +2.5

This is currently one of our top playable moneyline underdog picks and a playable point spread pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

We picked against Atlanta last week, but will turn around and take the Falcons in the division matchup at Tampa Bay in Week 7. Atlanta held Washington to just 13 first downs and under 200 total yards last week, but lost partly thanks to three interceptions.

In fact, several angles for this pick relate to possible regression around luck-related factors. Tampa Bay is +6 in turnover margin on the season, while Atlanta is -6. Atlanta has also underperformed in terms of points scored compared to yards gained.

Both of these teams’ rush defenses have been stout, but the Bucs have put up poor offensive performances in their two recent losses, with a rushing offense that ranks 32nd in the NFL.

That could put more pressure on QB Baker Mayfield, as the Atlanta defense is quietly playing well, ranking 4th overall in total yards allowed this season.

Arizona Cardinals (at Seattle Seahawks)

Moneyline: +298Point Spread: +7.5

This is our top playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model.

Seattle has over-performed relative to its yardage gained so far this season, as the Seahawks rank in the middle of the NFL in yards, but rank 5th in yards per point (while Arizona is 27th).

Arizona has played competitively this season, but has been plagued by second-half collapses. They’ve had a halftime lead in four of their six games so far, but have been outscored 98-30 after halftime. That includes getting outscored 20-0 after the break last week against the Rams, in a game where the yardage totals were pretty even for both teams.

Add in that Seattle has struggled as a bigger favorite in recent years (since 2017, the Seahawks are 5-13 ATS and only 10-8 SU when favored by 5 points or more at home), and we’ll take a chance on a bigger division upset.

Denver Broncos (vs. Green Bay Packers)

Moneyline: +105Point Spread: +1

This is a playable moneyline value pick according to our Ensemble Forecast model, is playable based on our Decision Tree Model, and as a situational fade of our Predictive Ratings Model.

The Denver Broncos have the worst defensive numbers in the NFL, but those averages are also skewed by a historic beatdown at Miami. Over the last two weeks, the Broncos have given up 40 total first downs, and held Kansas City to under 400 total yards in last week’s loss.

The Packers, on the other hand, rank near the bottom of the league in total yards (28th) and have struggled to run the ball. They’ve also outperformed their scoring expectation based on yards gained, ranking 2nd in that category after five games.

So we’ll play on Denver being a little undervalued now based on some awful early defensive performances, and the Packers still being a little overvalued based on offensive inconsistency and how poorly they rate in yards gained.

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Both the betting markets and our models give all three of these three teams less than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you bet produces an outsized return.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Remember that we expect to get the majority of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week. That includes losing all three picks in plenty of weeks.

After two straight seasons of profitable picks for this column, will the advice be profitable again in 2023? Who knows. Given the lower win probabilities and larger payout odds inherent with underdogs, variance can be pretty wild over an 18-week season and only around 50 total picks.

Profitability may end up depending on whether or not we hit a few home runs over the course of the season with long shot picks, or whether a several-week heater more than offsets most weeks being losers.

Given the dynamics at play, the week-to-week performance of our three picks is not worth dwelling on. We’ll see how pick performance ends up overall when the dust settles at the end of the 2023 season.

2023 Picks To Date

WEEK	TEAM	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	RESULT	LINE VALUE
1	CLE	CIN	118	-110	W 24-3	Yes
1	TEN	NO	149	125	L 16-15	Yes
1	ARI	WAS	271	250	L 24-20	Yes
2	NE	MIA	127	105	L 24-17	Yes
2	CHI	TB	129	115	L 27-17	Yes
2	CAR	NO	159	152	L 20-17	Yes
3	LAR	CIN	120	145	L 19-16	No
3	TB	PHI	187	220	L 25-11	No
3	CAR	SEA	215	180	L 37-27	Yes
4	TEN	CIN	115	120	W 27-3	No
4	MIA	BUF	133	127	L 48-20	Yes
4	NE	DAL	240	220	L 38-3	Yes
5	LV	GB	-105	-120	W 17-13	Yes
5	MIN	KC	179	155	L 27-20	Yes
5	JAC	BUF	215	200	W 25-20	Yes
6	WAS	ATL	119	107	W 24-16	Yes
6	CHI	MIN	125	140	L 19-13	No
6	NE	LV	148	135	L 17-21	Yes

NFL Week 7 Betting Picks & Model Predictions

To see a curated list of some of our favorite Week 7 betting picks, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

To see algorithmic picks from our various data models for Week 7 (including game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value predictions), visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

To find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our free and customizable NFL betting trends tool.

Golf Pool Picks

Get an edge in your One And Done and Majors pools

Learn MoreGet Picks Now